Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? What Science Can and Cannot Do
By Quake Tracker Live Editorial · Published November 9, 2026
No. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake, and they do not know how to do it or expect to be able to in the foreseeable future. What science can do is calculate probabilities for a region over years or decades, forecast aftershocks in the days after a big event, and send an alert seconds before shaking arrives. Each of those is useful, and none of them is a prediction.
What counts as an earthquake prediction
The USGS defines a prediction as a statement that specifies three things at once: when the earthquake will happen (date and time), where it will happen, and how large it will be. All three must be pinned down closely enough to act on. Without them, the statement is not a prediction in the scientific sense.
That is why vague claims do not count. Saying that a magnitude 4 earthquake will strike somewhere in the United States within 30 days is not a prediction, because the USGS notes one will almost always happen anyway. The same goes for claims that a "big one" is coming "soon" somewhere along a famous fault. Earthquakes happen constantly, so a loose claim will eventually look correct. You can see how many occur on any given day on our earthquakes today page.
Why prediction is so hard
Earthquakes start deep underground, in rock that scientists cannot observe directly. Stress builds on a fault over years, but the moment it fails depends on tiny details of friction, fluids and rock strength that cannot be measured from the surface. Two faults under similar stress can behave very differently, and the same fault can release its stress in a small earthquake or a large one.
Researchers have searched for reliable warning signals, called precursors: changes in animal behavior, ground water levels, radon gas, electrical or magnetic fields, small foreshocks and more. None has been shown to work consistently. After the 2004 magnitude 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake, one of the best-instrumented earthquakes ever recorded, USGS researchers reported that the absence of electric and magnetic field precursors suggests that useful prediction of damaging earthquakes with electromagnetic data is unlikely.
Foreshocks do not give a dependable signal
A foreshock is a smaller earthquake that comes before a larger one in the same place. The trouble is that it is only called a foreshock after the bigger earthquake has happened. When a moderate earthquake strikes, nobody knows whether it is the main event or the start of something larger.
The USGS says that worldwide, the likelihood that an earthquake will be followed by a larger earthquake nearby within a week is about 5%. That is an average, and it shifts with how active the sequence is. So the odds are low, but not zero, and the 95% that do not become foreshocks cannot be told apart in advance. Our guide to aftershocks explains the statistics of these sequences.
Prediction, forecast, probability and early warning
These four words are often mixed up. The USGS uses them for different things:
| Term | What it tells you | Time scale | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | The exact date, place and magnitude of a future earthquake | Specific time | Not possible today; none has ever been made for a major earthquake |
| Probability | The long-term chance of an earthquake of a given size in a region | Decades | Long-term U.S. earthquake hazard maps |
| Forecast | A probability for a shorter window, usually for aftershocks | Days to a year | USGS aftershock forecasts after a significant earthquake |
| Early warning | An alert after an earthquake starts, before shaking reaches you | Seconds to tens of seconds | ShakeAlert on the U.S. West Coast |
Definitions follow the USGS FAQ on early warning, forecasts, probabilities and prediction.
What scientists can say: probabilities
Even without predictions, scientists can describe how likely it is that a region will have a damaging earthquake over a period such as 30 years. They do it by combining the geologic record of past earthquakes, the speed at which faults accumulate strain and models of how often earthquakes of each size happen. It is similar to how climate scientists describe the chance of a hurricane season without telling you where a particular storm will land.
The USGS notes that long-term probabilities for faults with historical records are typically in the range of 1-in-30 to 1-in-300, while estimates for faults without historical records, based on slip rates, run from 1-in-300 to 1-in-3,000. For the Los Angeles area, the USGS gives 30-year probabilities of 60% for a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake, 46% for magnitude 7 or larger and 31% for magnitude 7.5 or larger.
View the data
| Probability over 30 years (%) | Value |
|---|---|
| Magnitude 6.7 or larger | 60% |
| Magnitude 7.0 or larger | 46% |
| Magnitude 7.5 or larger | 31% |
Source: USGS FAQ on earthquake early warning, forecasts, probabilities and prediction. These are probabilities for a region over decades, not predictions of a specific event. Larger earthquakes are less likely, in line with the Gutenberg-Richter pattern.
These numbers do not say a major earthquake will strike on a given day. They say that, over a generation, such an event is more likely than not in some regions. They are the basis of building codes and hazard maps. For where the risk is highest in the country, see our guide to U.S. earthquake zones.
What scientists can say: aftershock forecasts
In the days and weeks after a significant earthquake, the picture is better, because the sequence is already unfolding. The USGS issues operational aftershock forecasts that give the chance of further earthquakes of different sizes over the next day, week, month and year. These can be larger than 1-in-30 for the shorter periods, and they are updated as new data come in. They tell communities what to expect, such as how likely a damaging aftershock is, without saying exactly when it will strike.
What technology can do: early warning
Earthquake early warning does not predict anything. It detects an earthquake that has already begun, calculates its size and location, and sends alerts ahead of the slower, more destructive shaking waves. The USGS describes the advance notice as seconds to tens of seconds, depending on how far you are from the source. See our guide to earthquake early warning in the U.S. for how ShakeAlert and the MyShake app work.
How to spot false predictions
- Missing one of the three elements. If a claim does not give a date, a place and a magnitude, it is not a prediction.
- Hindsight claims. "I predicted it" posts that appear after the earthquake, or that cover many possible places and dates, do not count.
- Animal behavior, odd weather or "earthquake clouds". None has been established as a dependable precursor, so a claim based on them is a guess.
- Official-looking channels. Real alerts come from agencies such as the USGS and NOAA, not from social media accounts or videos. Quake Tracker Live shows recent earthquakes and is not an official alert system.
What to do instead: be ready every day
Because no one can tell you when, the best protection is preparation that works any day: secure heavy furniture, keep supplies on hand and practice Drop, Cover and Hold On. Our preparedness checklist is a good place to start. You can also check recent activity in a high-risk state such as California or Alaska to see how often small earthquakes happen in places where large ones are possible.
Frequently asked questions
Can scientists predict earthquakes?
No. The USGS says neither it nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake, and they do not expect to be able to in the foreseeable future. They can calculate probabilities and forecast aftershocks instead.
What is the difference between an earthquake forecast and a prediction?
A prediction gives the exact date and time, location and magnitude. A forecast gives only the probability that an earthquake of some size will happen in a region within a time window, such as 30 years or the next week.
Can animals sense earthquakes before they happen?
No dependable earthquake precursor has been established, animal behavior included. Animals react to many things, and scientists have not found a way to turn those reactions into a reliable warning.
How likely is it that an earthquake is a foreshock?
The USGS says that, worldwide, about 5% of earthquakes are followed by a larger one nearby within a week. It is not possible to know in advance which ones.
Is earthquake early warning the same as prediction?
No. Early warning detects an earthquake that has already started and sends an alert before the strongest shaking reaches you. It gives seconds to tens of seconds, not days or hours.
Sources and further reading
- USGS: Can you predict earthquakes?
- USGS: Difference between early warning, forecasts, probabilities and prediction
- USGS: Probability that an earthquake is a foreshock
- USGS: Seismomagnetic effects of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
This guide is general information, not professional or emergency advice. Quake Tracker Live is not an official warning system; follow instructions from local authorities.